When discussing long-term profit chasing the best football betting strategy or winning in other sports, one of the most prevalent expressions punters employ is “value betting.” The process of determining the extra value on a set of odds is both gratifying and difficult. Because online bookmakers make their business by balancing such odds, they have a theoretical edge in calculating the possibilities of sports results and anticipating where the majority of punters would wager.
According to a punter, a “value bet” is nothing more than a standard bet with some added value. Following his study and estimations, a punter will conclude that the possibilities of one team winning are greater than the odds supplied by the bookie.
The truth is that value betting can exist only in sports betting when there are no accurate statistical alternatives for each event. Other types of gambling, such as cards or roulette, are governed by stringent probability regulations. When a gambler bets on a single number on a European roulette wheel, he is aware that his theoretical long-term chance of winning is 1/37.
Of fact, in sports betting, this is not reliably assessed, especially in team sports where players, referees, or weather conditions can all impact the outcome. Nobody can predict who will win a football, basketball, or tennis match.
How to Find Value Bets in Football
So, how do bookmakers ensure a consistent profit? They offer their odds sets based on a variety of criteria, which are similar to the criteria that a punter considers before placing a bet: The strengths and prior meetings of the teams, how football managers influence our betting analysis, current form, H2H outcomes, injuries and suspensions, possibly some “inside information,” and the market’s pulls and pushes.
In that respect, they don’t give exact odds, but rather prices that mirror the actual probabilities. And, of course, because they are humans, they make mistakes in their estimations, sometimes quite big ones.
1. Without a margin of error, bookmakers cannot predict the outcome of any match. They give pricing based on their estimates.
2. Review your assessments on a frequent basis. It is a critical component if you want to acquire an eye for betting value.
3. Be tenacious. Finding value bets and sticking to your betting approach, no matter how unlikely the outcome appears at first glance, are crucial to betting success.
However, don’t expect a bookmaker to make regular, obvious errors. Pricing mistakes are uncommon, but they do occur. A small number of gamblers make their income by exploiting them in fixed odds sports betting. Finding value bets necessitates two steps:
A detailed understanding of sports, leagues, and betting markets.
By following our live betting tips, you can become acquainted with how bookmakers establish odds, whether pre-match or in-play.
Best Bookmakers for Football Value Betting
There are numerous sports betting fallacies concerning gaining a better grasp of sports betting. Many bettors specialize in a mathematical approach, employing grading systems based on historical performance to forecast future outcomes. Some devote hours each week to reading sports publications and websites in order to obtain as much information as possible about a certain event, such as weather reports, player injuries, and morale. Others focus solely on the odds provided by the bookmaker. In any event, no punter can be certain that his odds are better than the bookies’.
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Because odds are simply prices, aka probabilities, value betting appears to be the only way to defeat the bookmaker over time. Betting on a team to win regardless of the odds ignores the bookmaker’s prices and may not be enough to guarantee a profit. After all, no matter how accurate your forecasts are, you’re guaranteed to lose some bets.
How to Calculate a Value Bet
A punter who concentrates on value betting is actually questioning the bookmaker’s estimations of the available odds. Wherever the punter believes there is a mistake, he almost always finds a value bet. Although the bookmaker’s experience, knowledge, and strong technological tools cannot be easily contested, the punter has the advantage of restricting his options. Every day, most bookmakers are required to supply tens of thousands of odds sets. A punter only needs to concentrate on a few games.
The most challenging aspect of determining the value in a particular set of chances is that there is no definite rule for doing so. A value bet is one in which the actual chance of winning surpasses the bookmaker’s estimate.
When it comes to value betting, we dive into a realm of statistical analysis, mathematical formulas, and concrete facts. Unraveling the true value, though complex, is within our grasp. Embracing the essence of value betting ensures a more successful betting strategy, even when opting for low odds.
Now, let’s explore the most common formula:
Value = (Probability * Decimal Odds) – 1
Consider a simple scenario – a 2-way tennis match with equally skilled players, each boasting a 50% chance of victory. A bookmaker presents odds of 2.10 for one of the players. Applying the formula reveals that this is indeed a value bet.
(50% * 2.10) – 1 = 1.05 – 1 = 0.05
Alternatively, some punters prefer determining a value bet using a percentage of chances with this formula:
Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
In the tennis example mentioned earlier, the probability for the odds of 2.10 stands at 1/2.10 = 47.62%.
Remember, our estimated chances percentage must always surpass the odds’ probabilities. The greater the difference, the more lucrative the value bet becomes. Embrace the power of value betting with confidence!
Value Bets Example
Assume a punter believes Team A has a 70% chance of winning, with a 15% chance of Team B winning and another 15% chance of a tie, implying that he believes Team A will comfortably win. According to these estimates, the probabilities that would be regarded fair for Team A are 1.43 and 6.67, respectively. If the match could be repeated 100 times, betting on Team A would be successful 70 times but would result in a 4,5% loss of the total amount of money wagered.
Betting on Team B every time, on the other hand, would be successful only 15 times but would result in a 12,5% profit. As a result, the value bet becomes backing Team B, although having significantly fewer possibilities of winning at first glance.
In any event, making your own odds in a match and comparing them to the bookmaker’s is a terrific approach to uncover value bets. This will help you refine your skills as you attempt to compute the same match factors that bookies do every day. The similar procedure should be used for other markets, such as betting on cards or developing your corner betting strategy in football.
You might not be successful at first, especially if you try to calculate your own odds, because the comparison will reveal big discrepancies. We propose that you first obey the bookies’ opinion because they are more experienced in this approach; nonetheless, choosing your own odds will get you thinking about likelihood. It also allows you to fight your betting wits against experienced bookies by checking the results of your own odds. It will undoubtedly take some time to get used to, but it will be well worth your time.
You will rarely discover the exact odds you desire, but you must embrace the fact that you are looking for even a tiny return. Your own odds are the prices at which you would not be happy betting in the first place, your clear and non-arbitrary odds. If the odds supplied by the bookmakers disagree, you must back the Team that is offered better odds than your own estimate.
