Is It A Good Strategy To Always Bet On The Favourite?

Sports betting is undeniably a diverse realm, boasting a myriad of wagering strategies for making precise bets. With countless books, revered gurus, and seasoned experts offering guidance, the wealth of knowledge available on this subject is boundless.

One recurring piece of advice emphasizes betting on the favorite, which, in theory, appears to be a reliable strategy. After all, who wants to risk their money on the underdog? However, following this approach can render all other strategies meaningless.

If wagering on the stronger team were the ultimate solution, there would be no need for research or perusing articles like this one on whether sports betting can lead to riches. Nevertheless, there are nuanced aspects to consider.

While betting on the favorite is not without merit, it’s essential to acknowledge the multitude of factors involved in making such decisions—factors that often go overlooked by novice bettors.

What Type of Bet Are You Taking?

Before placing your hard-earned cash on the line, it’s crucial to understand how your money enters the game. Outsmarting your bookie involves navigating a multitude of strategies, and being aware of how each type of bet can influence the outcome is pivotal.

The in-play mechanic is your guiding star in determining where to invest your money. Let’s explore some of the most popular betting methods:

Straight Bet

In its simplest form, a straight bet requires no point spreads or handicaps. You select a team and wholeheartedly support them until the game’s conclusion – no strings attached. However, such straightforward wagers are typically reserved for friendly bets among friends or neighbors when their favorite teams clash. Betting on the stronger team is a sound approach in this scenario.

Things get a tad more intricate when factors like spreads and over/under bets enter the picture. Every game or race carries its point spreads, denoted by the numbers following the + or – signs next to the team names. These figures represent the points or goals that the favorite team must concede to the underdog.

For instance, suppose you’re considering the Broncos vs. Raiders game, and the Broncos are favored by -7. This means that if you bet on the Broncos, you’re essentially trailing by one touchdown even before the game kicks off. To win your bet, the Broncos must triumph by at least 8 points.

This situation begs for extensive research. Analyze the Broncos’ historical performance against the Raiders, their winning frequency, and their point differentials, especially in the current season. Such insights will help you determine if a 7-point spread is favorable.

Fixed Odds

Fixed odds betting is a global standard and serves as a compensatory mechanism for bookies when bettors lean toward the favorite. While the system slightly varies in Europe and the United States, its essence remains consistent.

In the United Kingdom, fractional/decimal odds indicate your potential winnings. For instance, if you bet on Sheffield United against Aston Villa with odds of 1/3, a £300 bet on Sheffield would yield a mere £100 profit. The remaining £200 represents the bookie’s fee for accepting the bet.

To maximize your gains, scout for betting platforms offering the highest odds and make regular comparisons. The Moneyline system, more prevalent in U.S. sportsbooks, operates with whole numbers, showcasing the potential winnings but devoid of any connection to starting scores.

Avoid confusing the money line with point spreads. Point spreads relate to starting scores, whereas money lines indicate potential winnings. Returning to the Sheffield game, but with an American bookie, you might see something like PK (-150). In this case, Sheffield is the favorite, and you’d need to wager $150 to win $100 if Sheffield emerges victorious.

By grasping these betting intricacies, you can confidently navigate the world of sports wagering.

What Teams Are Playing?


Once you’ve pinpointed the type of betting that aligns with your game plan, it’s time to delve into the key players involved. Typically, a team earns the title of “favorite” for valid reasons: they boast a superior track record, a roster of stronger players, a new coaching staff, or even the loudest cheerleaders, among other factors.

Taking all these aspects into consideration, the bookie crafts a betting line designed to entice their customers. This isn’t arbitrary; it’s a well-thought-out process. A bookie’s ultimate judgment often hinges on a team’s consistency.

At times, the odds don’t solely reflect a team’s overall performance but rather how they fare against a specific opponent. Consider the Patriots-Dolphins rivalry, for instance. These two teams have engaged in a longstanding battle, with the Patriots historically holding the upper hand. In 2019, during their initial face-off, New England dominated the Dolphins with a commanding 43-0 victory. Consequently, the Patriots were favored by a substantial (-17) spread in their second encounter.

Many bettors naturally leaned towards New England, and bookies worldwide favored these odds. However, Miami ultimately upset the odds by defeating the Patriots by three points.

What the bookmakers effectively achieved here was creating an enticing line to attract those who favored betting on the favorites. It’s crucial to remember that teams rarely replicate their previous performance when facing the same opponent in subsequent encounters—unless, of course, we’re talking about the Cavaliers from last season.

Other Factors and Internal Changes

favourite team

In the realm of sports betting, betting lines are typically established based on team strengths, including factors such as quarterbacks and defensive prowess, as well as overall team consistency. These lines often do not account for micro-influencers, such as last-minute changes in starting lineups or minor injuries. For instance, if a coach unexpectedly swaps quarterbacks right before a game due to unforeseen circumstances, it can significantly impact the game’s outcome.

Given that bookies cannot adjust their lines in response to these small developments, you have a valuable opportunity to leverage such situations and make informed, winning decisions. Staying well-informed and keeping a close eye on sports news can be a lucrative strategy. You never know when you might come across a nugget of information that could boost your chances of winning and potentially add a little extra to your wallet.


Although placing bets on the favorite is a reasonable approach in many cases, it doesn’t always represent the optimal strategy. The world of sports betting is a complex arena with numerous variables at play. Success often hinges on patience and diligent study.

Consider this: if the stronger team consistently emerged victorious without exception, the role of bookmakers would become obsolete. There must be enticing possibilities and opportunities for everyone involved in the betting landscape.

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